Responding With Policy To COVID-19 Crisis
The coronavirus
pandemic has become a global phenomenon. No country regardless of its size or
economic vitality has been able to aloof itself from this. Very few countries
which implemented early precautionary measures have been able to minimize
insurmountable loss of wealth and human casualties. In this connection, it was
indeed a quick maneuver by our state mechanism to realize its possible
intensity which forged a timely lockdown. This has been by far the most
effective measure to protect the country from possible human casualties. Though
on one hand, it has caused some difficulties to the general public, on the
other it has saved the country from possible severity of the mass engulfing of
the virus. However, prolonged lockdown has put the economy on the verge of recession.
The virus will stay with us for a long time until the vaccine arrives, which is
no anytime sooner. In this situation, the best thing to do is to continue
contemporary preventive measures while also taking precautionary measures to
control the damage on the economic front.
The IMF predicts
the global economy to contract by 3% in 2020 making the current crisis the
worst recession since the great depression of the 1930s. The IMF has named this
crisis as "The Great Lockdown", because of the global nature of the
crisis whose speed and scale of impact is unparallel to any other crisis before
and has forced the countries to opt for withdrawing of all social activities
through the lockdown.
In response to
the crisis, central banks and governments across the globe have introduced
various policy measures. Such policy measures are aimed to facilitate the
economy to have a V-shaped recovery. In the US the Federal Reserve has approved
a $2.2 trillion stimulus package. Similarly, Japan has introduced the largest ever
stimulus package worth more than $550 billion of about 10% of its Gross
Domestic Product. Many other countries have followed the suit.
Following the
pandemic, the IMF, the World Bank, Center Bureau of Statistics, Nepal, etc have
estimated the growth rate of Nepal for the current fiscal year to range within
1.5 to 2.5 percent. Though such projection might change depending upon the
duration of the crisis, it is obvious that the economy will be hit hard. Given
the composition of our GDP, various sectors that contribute to the GDP will be
affected in varying intensity.
Sectoral
Impact
The structure of
the Nepalese economy is primitive akin to that of the developing countries.
Nearly more than one-fourth of the GDP is contributed by the
primary sector. According to the Economic Survey 2018/19, the
contribution to GDP of the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary sectors account for
27.6%, 14.6%, and 57.9% respectively.
Amongst all the
sectors, the agriculture sector is least affected and with some arrangements,
the government can control the damage. A major contributor to the agriculture
sector is paddy, which will sustain its contribution to a large extent.
Further, improvement in the supply chain will ensure the marketability of other
Agro-products even in a difficult period. In the secondary sector, the
manufacturing is disturbed severely on account of the paucity of workers,
disturbances of the supply chain, etc. The construction sector is likely to be
moderately affected. Continuing the construction activities of large scale
projects will ensure that this sector will help to control the
damage.
The contribution
of the service sector in the economy of the country is paramount. Here the
wholesale and retail trade sector with 14.4% of GDP has the highest share. On
account of disruption of the supply chain, diminished purchasing power of
self-employed, huge layoff of employees and contract workers this sector will
also be moderately affected. Another sector that has been hit hard is
the hotel and restaurant sector. It was because of
the corona crisis that Visit Nepal 2020 was canceled. The downfall in this
sector will also negatively affect other sectors like transportation and
communication, earnings of the financial intermediaries, agriculture, aviation,
etc. As the COVID crisis prolongs, this area will be affected for a longer
period. Even after the lockdown, it will take time for this sector to
revive.
Another factor
that has a vital role in the functioning of our economy, i.e Remittance will
also be severely hit. The total inflow of remittance for last fiscal year was
NPR 879 billion which for this year is estimated to be limited within NPR 800
billion. With the major destination country's economy forecasted to be in
recession, the fall in remittance will continue in days to come. As such new
job opportunities abroad will diminish increasing the return of the workers,
escalating the unemployment problem in the country. Dive in remittance and
number of outgoing migrant workers will lead to multifold repercussions on the
economy of the country; liquidity problems in the banking sector, pressure on
forex earning, decrease the overall economic activities, and increase the
poverty level and inequality in the country.
Policy
measures adopted
Amidst this
crisis, Nepal Rastra Bank has announced policy measures to facilitate the
economy. The measures aim to lubricate the functioning of the economy via
ensuring liquidity ease, reducing the cost of borrowing, flexible provisioning
of the loans and its servicing, enhancement of the refinance package, allowing
easy access to supplemental capital, and so on.
Furthermore, the
government has the responsibility to manage multifold challenges and prioritize
its actions. For this, it has introduced various measures in the recently
announced fiscal policy for the upcoming fiscal year. For eg, the budget of the
health care sector has been increased by Rs 20 billion reaching Rs 90.69
billion aiming to strengthen the overall
health care infrastructure and support our fight against the pandemic.
The policy also
emphasizes the agricultural sector with the introduction of some novel ideas.
Policies aiming to enhance the infrastructure in the agro sector for robust
supply chain management, linking products to the market, storage of products,
agro-insurance, land bank, irrigation plants, etc when implemented will modernize
our agricultural sector, enhance the level of food security in the country and
save our expenses on imports.
Furthermore, the
policy aims to absorb the unemployed workforce in the agriculture sector and
other sectors by creating employment opportunities, addressing those who have
been laid off from their job, including the returnee migrant workers. Touted as
labor-friendly, the policy also aims to create employment opportunities via the
PM Employment Program, has focused on skill-based training, emphasized on
subsidized loan via banks and financial institutions, stringent management of
the foreign employees working in Nepal, etc.
Consideration has
also been taken in line with the frugality measures, for eg withholding all the
additional perks and benefits going to the employees, downsizing the Member of
Parliament's fund, etc. The policy looks like one to be adhered to during times
of crisis. Along with all these provisions the recently announced fiscal
policy looks promising and optimistic.
In a nutshell,
the overall policy measures recommended are sound and aim to address the
dynamics of the current crisis. However, its real excellence will be reflected
in its proper implementation. Similarly, the duration of the crisis will also
be another limiting factor that might demand some flexibility in due course of
time. As such it is pertinent to ensure that the stated policies are timely
implemented in a coordinated and transparent manner so that the damage
emanating from the corona pandemic can be contained.